The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency heralds a renewed era of “America First” policies, with profound implications for the global economy. For Africa, Trump’s transactional diplomacy, skepticism toward multilateralism, and potential trade protectionism present both challenges and opportunities. Ghana, under a hypothetical John Mahama administration, must navigate this shifting landscape with strategic foresight, drawing lessons from Trump’s past policies while mitigating risks to its economic ambitions.
Trump’s Global Economic Impact: Disruption and Uncertainty
1. Trade Wars and Protectionism
Trump’s first term saw tariffs on Chinese goods, renegotiated trade deals (e.g., USMCA), and threats to withdraw from the WTO. A second term could exacerbate global trade fragmentation, disrupting supply chains and inflating costs for import-dependent nations. African economies, many of which rely on exporting commodities like oil, minerals, and agricultural products, may face reduced access to U.S. markets if tariffs expand.
2. Reduced Foreign Aid and Diplomatic Pragmatism
Trump’s skepticism of foreign aid programs led to proposed cuts to initiatives like PEPFAR and USAID. While Congress often blocked these efforts, a renewed push could shrink critical funding for African health, education, and infrastructure projects. Conversely, Trump’s focus on countering China’s influence might revive programs like *Prosper Africa*, albeit with strings attached.
3. Climate Policy Rollbacks
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and support for fossil fuels could weaken global climate action, complicating Africa’s efforts to secure financing for green transitions. However, this may also create short-term opportunities for African oil exporters like Nigeria and Angola.
Africa in the Crosshairs: Between Trump and Global Rivals
1. The China Factor
Trump’s adversarial stance toward China could force African nations into a delicate balancing act. While the U.S. may pressure countries to avoid Chinese loans and infrastructure deals (e.g., Belt and Road Initiative), China remains a critical partner for many. Ghana, for instance, has benefited from Chinese-funded projects but risks debt dependency.
2. AGOA at Risk
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants tariff-free access to the U.S. market, could face scrutiny under Trump. Ghana’s textile and apparel sectors, which leverage AGOA, would suffer if eligibility is tied to political compliance.
3. Investment and Aid Uncertainty
U.S. private investment in Africa under Trump has been tepid, with a focus on extractive industries. A decline in aid could strain budgets for social programs, though it may also push African governments to pursue self-reliant policies.
Lessons for Ghana’s Mahama Administration: The Good and the Bad
The Good: Strategic Opportunities
1. Diversify Partnerships
Trump’s unpredictability underscores the need for Ghana to diversify its economic alliances. Strengthening ties with the EU, India, and regional blocs (e.g., AfCFTA) could reduce over-reliance on any single power.
2. Boost Local Industries
Protectionist U.S. policies may limit exports, but they also incentivize Ghana to add value to raw materials domestically. Investing in agro-processing, manufacturing, and tech innovation could cushion against external shocks.
3. Leverage Diaspora Ties
Ghana’s “Year of Return” initiative exemplifies how diaspora engagement can attract investment and tourism—a model to expand despite U.S. immigration curbs.
The Bad: Risks to Avoid
1. Debt Diplomacy Traps
As U.S.-China rivalry intensifies, Ghana must avoid unsustainable loans from either camp. Mahama’s administration should prioritize transparent deals and debt restructuring to avert crises.
2. Overlooking Regional Integration
Trump’s disdain for multilateralism should not deter Ghana from championing African unity. Accelerating AfCFTA implementation can unlock intra-African trade opportunities.
3. Climate Complacency
Aligning with Trump’s fossil fuel agenda might offer short-term gains but could alienate EU partners and jeopardize climate financing. Ghana must balance energy needs with renewable investments.
In conclusion,
The Trump administration’s policies will test Ghana’s economic resilience and diplomatic agility. For Mahama’s team, the path forward lies in pragmatic diversification, assertive regional leadership, and avoiding the pitfalls of great-power rivalry. By prioritizing self-reliance and equitable partnerships, Ghana can turn global turbulence into a catalyst for sustainable growth.
Haruna Zinentah
Business Development and HR Consultant
with Interest in International Policy
Email: visionharuna@gmail.com
WhatsApp: +233 2059999897
